The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails - William A. Ward
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0410 UTC.


Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N32W 
to 21N39W. Farther North, this front is extending from a 
hurricane force low near 38N38W, which has been generating high 
seas in the central Atlantic this week. A recent scatterometer 
pass confirmed gale force SW winds are occurring ahead of the 
cold front. Scattered moderate convection extends about 180 nm 
ahead of the front. Winds will gradually diminish below gale 
force tonight as the front moves NE. Another cold front will 
move through the central Atlantic Fri, bringing near gale force 
winds by Fri night. Seas are currently peaking near 23 ft while 
12 ft seas extend as far south as 19N in the central Atlantic. 
While seas are on an abating trend, a pair of reinforcing cold 
fronts will keep seas very rough north of 25N through the 

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A new low will develop along 65W 
and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the central 
Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near the 
low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next 
week as the low moves quickly E while weakening. 

More information about these systems, including the associated 
Storm and Gale Warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
13N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W to 04N30W to 
01N50W. Convection is widely isolated and generally weak.


High pressure is located near SE Louisiana while a surface 
trough remains in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are light to gentle 
in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the 
basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure continues meandering over the 
northern Gulf waters. The high will prevail through the weekend, 
then shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches 
the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the 
weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Winds 
may increase to locally strong speeds and seas build up to 7-8 
ft in the western Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches 
from the NW. 


The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the 
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating 
moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean, including 
the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. 
Locally strong NE winds are off NW Colombia, generating seas to 
7 ft. In the E Caribbean, gentle to locally moderate N to NE 
winds prevail with mainly 4 to 6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 10 ft 
near and SW of Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell 
originating from the gale force low in the central Atlantic.

For the forecast, the intense non-tropical cyclone over the 
north Atlantic continues to move away from our area. Large NE 
swell across the central Atlantic will continue move through the 
Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through late 
Sat, decreasing on Sun and increasing again early next week as 
another swell event reaches the region. Surface ridging north of 
the Caribbean maintains NE-E winds across much of the forecast 
waters. Fresh to strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in 
offshore Colombia into early next week. 


Please read the Special Features section above for details on 
the Gale Warnings active in the basin.

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N56W to 27N70W to 30N80W 
supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 23N between the 
front and 68W along with 10-13 ft seas. Seas of 8 to 10 ft cover 
the remainder SW N Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas due to long 
period NE swell associated with the low in the special features. 
High pressure in the far eastern Atlantic is leading to light 
winds north of 22N off the African coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the powerful non-tropical low over 
the north Atlantic continues to move away from the SW Atlantic. 
Large long-period north to northeast swell will continue to 
impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the 
southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean, producing high seas 
into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the 
Florida offshore waters N of 26N through Sat. A cold front is 
entering the SW Atlantic waters and a new low will develop E of 
Bermuda late Sat and move SE entering the central Atlantic this 
weekend. Gale-force winds will develop late Sat N of 28N and E 
of 70W. These conditions will dissipate by late Sun as the low 
moves quickly E while weakening. 


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