Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 737 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ....Atlantic Gale Warning... A 1010 mb low is centered over the western Atlantic near 28N72W. A stationary front extends from 31N64W to the low, then a cold front extends from the low to 23N80W. A Gale Warning is in effect for the area north of the front and low and east of 74W. Seas in this area will range between 9 to 16 ft. These conditions will continue through early Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 07N12W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to the coast of Brazil near 06S35W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... The front that was previously across the southeast Gulf waters has moved away from the basin and now extends across the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted across the Straits of Florida due to the proximity of the low. The tail end of a stationary front extends across the Florida peninsula along 28N and east of 82W with scattered showers. To the west, a surface trough extends from 23N96W to 19N94W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over southeast Texas. The ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next several days, producing mainly a moderate to locally fresh winds, except off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is pushing southward from western Cuba from a 1014 mb low near 23N81W to 17N88W. A pre-frontal trough is also over the west Caribbean from 19N81W to 17N85W. Scattered showers are along this trough. Scattered showers are also noted moving quickly across western Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles with the trades. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the basin. In the northwest Caribbean, moderate northerly winds are behind the front, and light to gentle southwesterly winds prevail ahead of the front. The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia through Thu night. The cold front will move southwest and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday morning, and from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Thursday evening while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front over the western Atlantic stretches from a 1016 mb low near 33N78W off the South Carolina coast to Daytona Beach Florida. Farther south, a frontal system, related to the Gale Warning, is analyzed. A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to a 1010 mb low east of the Bahamas near 28N72W, then a cold front continues from the low to 23N80W. Scattered showers are observed along the stationary front and near the low. East of these features, surface ridging is extending across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high near 47N06W. Strong to gale-force winds will continue over the west Atlantic until early Thursday. The low will gradually shift northeast over the next 24 hours, dragging the frontal boundary, that is forecast to extend from 30N65W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 28N70W to 23N78W by Thursday morning. The stationary front lingering along the east coast of Florida will push southward as a reinforcing cold front. By Friday, it will merge with the stationary front and extend from 28N65W to eastern Cuba. Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
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