If you can imagine it, you can achieve it. If you can dream it, you can become it - William A. Ward
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
110 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W/57W southward of 16N and 
moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture with this 
tropical wave. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are in 
the vicinity of this wave from 07N-09N between 53W-57W. Enhanced 
convection is also noted along the Guyana coast. This wave may 
enhance showers over the Windward Islands beginning late today and 
the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday.  

The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W south of 22N and moving W 
at 15 kt. TPW imagery shows that a plume of enhanced moisture 
accompanies the tropical wave. No significant convection is noted 
over water. Some scattered showers are seen over Nicaragua. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 
05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 15N-17N 
between 11W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of 
the ITCZ between 21W-29W.


A mid-level low is over the U.S. southern Plains, with mid-level 
troughing extending across the basin to the NW Caribbean and western 
Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front continues to move across the 
NW Gulf. At 1500 UTC, it stretches from central Louisiana near 
29N92W to just south Texas/Mexico border near 26N97W. A pre-frontal 
trough is analyzed from 26N93W to 22N98W.  Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is occurring in the western Gulf from 22N-26N 
between 92W-97W. Scattered moderate convection is in the NW Gulf 
from 26N-30N between 88W-97W. In the eastern Gulf, a trough 
continues to drift northward and at 1500 UTC, it was analyzed at the 
north-central Florida coast near 28N83W to south of SE Louisiana 
near 28N89W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 24N-
30N between 83W-87W. Gentle to moderate easterly and southerly winds 
are seen across most of the basin with moderate NE winds behind the 
cold front off the Texas coast. Seas range 2 to 6 ft. 

Weak low pressure is located just inland north of Tampa FL this 
morning, with a surface trough extending west into the Gulf. Both 
the low and trough will lift northward and move out of the Gulf Tue 
night. Fresh east winds will occur north of this front. A weak cold 
front has moved off the Texas coast this morning, and will weaken 
further as it stalls toward the central Gulf Tue. Smoke and haze 
from fires over southern Mexico will likely reduce visibility at 
times over the SW Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will prevail for the 
end of the week into the weekend.


Scattered showers are noted off the coasts of  Panama and Costa 
Rica, otherwise no significant convection is noted. Moderate to 
fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with gentle southerly 
winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean 
through tonight, then remain fresh into mid-week, then remain fresh 
into the weekend. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at 
night over the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. During periods of 
lesser winds, smoke from fires in Central America may restrict 
visibility in the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave along 84W will 
cross the western Caribbean into Wed, before exiting into Central 


At 1500 UTC, a 1010 mb low is along the central Florida coast near 
29N81W with a trough extending from that low to 28N78W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is in the western Atlantic near this 
trough from 25N-31N between 75W-81W. Fresh easterly winds are north 
of the trough with fresh southerly winds south of the trough. 
Another trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 28N65W to 
23N69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough 
from 21N-28N between 58W-66W. 

In the central Atlantic, two 1020 mb lows are analyzed near 28N43W 
and near 24N47W. A trough extends along the lows from 28N39W to 
23N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough 
and lows. Another trough continues to linger off the coast of Africa 
from 31N26W to 21N17W with no significant convection associated with 

The weak surface trough S of 27N will move inland, north of the 
area, by Wed.


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