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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1010 mb low is centered over the western Atlantic near 28N72W. A
stationary front extends from 31N64W to the low, then a cold front
extends from the low to 23N80W. A Gale Warning is in effect for 
the area north of the front and low and east of 74W. Seas in this 
area will range between 9 to 16 ft. These conditions will continue
through early Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO 
header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 07N12W to 
01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to the coast of Brazil 
near 06S35W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the
monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. 


The front that was previously across the southeast Gulf waters has
moved away from the basin and now extends across the northwest 
Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted across the Straits of
Florida due to the proximity of the low. The tail end of a
stationary front extends across the Florida peninsula along 28N 
and east of 82W with scattered showers. To the west, a surface
trough extends from 23N96W to 19N94W with scattered showers.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over southeast Texas. 

The ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next
several days, producing mainly a moderate to locally fresh winds,
except off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late 
evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 


A cold front is pushing southward from western Cuba from a 1014 
mb low near 23N81W to 17N88W. A pre-frontal trough is also over
the west Caribbean from 19N81W to 17N85W. Scattered showers are 
along this trough. Scattered showers are also noted moving 
quickly across western Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser 
Antilles with the trades. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail 
across the basin. In the northwest Caribbean, moderate northerly
winds are behind the front, and light to gentle southwesterly 
winds prevail ahead of the front. 

The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are 
expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia 
through Thu night. The cold front will move southwest and extend 
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday morning, 
and from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by 
Thursday evening while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate 
winds will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun.


A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A stationary front over the western
Atlantic stretches from a 1016 mb low near 33N78W off the South 
Carolina coast to Daytona Beach Florida. Farther south, a frontal
system, related to the Gale Warning, is analyzed. A stationary 
front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to a 1010 mb low east of
the Bahamas near 28N72W, then a cold front continues from the low
to 23N80W. Scattered showers are observed along the stationary
front and near the low. East of these features, surface ridging 
is extending across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 
1035 mb high near 47N06W.

Strong to gale-force winds will continue over the west Atlantic
until early Thursday. The low will gradually shift northeast over
the next 24 hours, dragging the frontal boundary, that is 
forecast to extend from 30N65W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 
28N70W to 23N78W by Thursday morning. The stationary front 
lingering along the east coast of Florida will push southward as a
reinforcing cold front. By Friday, it will merge with the 
stationary front and extend from 28N65W to eastern Cuba. Swell 
generated by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the 
Bahamas through the upcoming weekend.

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