NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W 
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 05N35W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 08N between 
20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15Z, a frontal trough extends from SE Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of
the trough axis N of 27N. Fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas
are seen over the north-central Gulf ahead of trough. High 
pressure of 1025 mb located over central Florida extends a ridge 
over the remainder of the Gulf waters supporting, in general, 
gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, and 2 to 4 
ft E of 90W. 

For the forecast, the above mentioned ridge will move southward 
into tonight, allowing a cold front to move into the northern 
Gulf. The front will stall across the central Gulf by late Fri 
before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of 
the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds across the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to
locally strong NE winds and rough seas from eastern Cuba to 
Honduras, and south of Jamaica into the SW Caribbean to about 
11N. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are also active off 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas dominate 
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers, with 
embedded thunderstorms, are active off NE Honduras and northern 
Nicaragua. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted over the east 
and central portions of the basin.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned high pressure north of 
the area is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas 
across the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and off Colombia.
The high pressure will weaken through tonight, allowing winds and
seas to slightly diminish through Sat. Looking ahead, the high 
pressure will build again Sat night, supporting increased winds 
and seas across portions of the central and NW Caribbean, including
the Windward Passage, through Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to the north coast of Haiti where
it becomes stationary. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas
in NW to N swell follow the front. A broad ridge extending from 
1026 mb high pressure located NE of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas is 
maintaining gentle winds elsewhere west of the front, with 4 to 6
ft seas primarily in N swell. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are 
observed by scatterometer data offshore NE Florida to about 72W. 
These winds are associated with a strong low pressure system that
covers the eastern of the United States. A trough is analyzed 
over the eastern Atlantic along 25W from 20N to 25N. This trough 
is the surface reflection of a large upper-level low spinning over
that area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are related to 
this system. Farther east, a ridge extending from 1034 mb high 
pressure located north of Madeira in the eastern Atlantic 
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and the aforementioned
trough is producing an area of fresh to strong winds N of 25N E 
of 28W. Seas are 9 to 13 ft, based on an altimeter pass, within 
these winds. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds, with seas 
in the 8 to 11 ft range can be found across the offshore waters 
from Guinea to Senegal. Moderate to fresh winds are noted farther 
west over the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 6 to 9 ft in NE 
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stalling cold front from 25N48W 
to Hispaniola will weaken tonight then dissipate Fri. Another 
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight, 
reaching from Bermuda to Straits of Florida by late Fri, from 
31N55W to the Windward Passage by late Sat, then will stall and 
dissipate along 22N through Sun. High pressure will build between 
northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat through Mon following the front.

$$
GR