NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0410 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N32W to 21N39W. Farther North, this front is extending from a hurricane force low near 38N38W, which has been generating high seas in the central Atlantic this week. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed gale force SW winds are occurring ahead of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection extends about 180 nm ahead of the front. Winds will gradually diminish below gale force tonight as the front moves NE. Another cold front will move through the central Atlantic Fri, bringing near gale force winds by Fri night. Seas are currently peaking near 23 ft while 12 ft seas extend as far south as 19N in the central Atlantic. While seas are on an abating trend, a pair of reinforcing cold fronts will keep seas very rough north of 25N through the weekend. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A new low will develop along 65W and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near the low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next week as the low moves quickly E while weakening. More information about these systems, including the associated Storm and Gale Warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W to 04N30W to 01N50W. Convection is widely isolated and generally weak. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is located near SE Louisiana while a surface trough remains in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure continues meandering over the northern Gulf waters. The high will prevail through the weekend, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Winds may increase to locally strong speeds and seas build up to 7-8 ft in the western Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches from the NW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Locally strong NE winds are off NW Colombia, generating seas to 7 ft. In the E Caribbean, gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail with mainly 4 to 6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near and SW of Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell originating from the gale force low in the central Atlantic. For the forecast, the intense non-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic continues to move away from our area. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through late Sat, decreasing on Sun and increasing again early next week as another swell event reaches the region. Surface ridging north of the Caribbean maintains NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings active in the basin. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N56W to 27N70W to 30N80W supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 23N between the front and 68W along with 10-13 ft seas. Seas of 8 to 10 ft cover the remainder SW N Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas due to long period NE swell associated with the low in the special features. High pressure in the far eastern Atlantic is leading to light winds north of 22N off the African coast. For the forecast W of 55W, the powerful non-tropical low over the north Atlantic continues to move away from the SW Atlantic. Large long-period north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N through Sat. A cold front is entering the SW Atlantic waters and a new low will develop E of Bermuda late Sat and move SE entering the central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop late Sat N of 28N and E of 70W. These conditions will dissipate by late Sun as the low moves quickly E while weakening. $$ Flynn
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