Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel in order to be tough - Franklin D. Roosevelt
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St. 
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. A new explosive eruption has occurred
this afternoon, and the ash plume is forecast to reach Barbados
this evening and tonight. Ash may be reaching the surface of the
ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are
transiting the waters between Saint Vincent and Barbados should 
exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic 
debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane 
Center, at 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
west Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 07N22W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N22W to 02N35W to 04N45W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N-05N between 22W-25W. Scattered moderate convection
can be found from 01N-03N between 44W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb located E of NE Florida extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico producing gentle to moderate
winds across the western half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh
E-SE winds across the eastern half of the Gulf region. Convection
has flared-up across the north-central Gulf ahead of a frontal 
boundary. 

The ridge will remain in place through tonight. A cold front 
will reach the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and weaken on Fri. A
stronger cold front will move into the Northwest Gulf on Sat, 
with strong northerly winds and building seas expected across the
western Gulf this weekend. The front will stall from near Tampa 
Bay, Florida to the Bay of Campeche early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano 
on St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section 
above for more details.

A ridge dominates Cuba and the NW Caribbean while a weak pressure
gradient noted over the eastern Caribbean thanks to the presence
of a frontal boundary near Puerto Rico. The most recent 
scatterometer pass showed moderate to fresh NE winds across the 
Windward Passage and downwind to just E of Jamaica. Similar wind 
speeds are noted near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of 
Honduras. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
the Caribbean through Sat, except pulsing locally to fresh to strong
through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of 
Colombia through early Thu, then in the south-central Caribbean 
this weekend into early next week. SE winds will pulse to fresh 
to strong in the NW Caribbean starting early Fri through the
weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano 
on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special 
Features section above for more details.

A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western-central 
Atlantic waters. The primary cold front extends from 31N48W to
the easternmost tip of Dominican Republic. The second cold front
enters the forecast waters near 31N56W and continues SW to near
the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is
noted ahead of the first front, particularly N of 21N E of front
to 45W. The primary cold front will move eastward on Thu while 
weakening. The secondary front will dissipate over the next 12-24
hours. Moisture associated with the primary front will affect 
the Leeward Islands on Thu and Fri. Another cold front will move 
east of northern Florida into the northern waters by early Fri, 
then stall north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next 
week. 

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of 1023 mb high pressure located near 29N31W. The pressure gradient
between this system and lower pressure over west Africa will 
result in fresh trade winds across the Cabo Verde Islands, and 
between these islands and the coast of W Africa Thu and Fri. By 
Fri night into Sat, the trade wind flow will increase some between
35W and 50W. 

$$
GR

About me

I love communications! It gives me the ability to be an information broker - putting people in touch with others who can help them. It's very satisfying to bring people together this way ... and that's why I love working for charities, non-profits, humanitarian NGOs and aid agencies - all for the common good.

I've worked in journalism in the print, broadcast and online media and in PR, specifically in Media Relations, Stakeholder Engagement, Digital Commnications and Social Media.

I have a thing for environmental stuff and extreme weather events. I am somewhat of an amateur tropical meteorologist but am trying to get my head around temperate meteorology. I am also having some fun learning about gasification technologies.

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