NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extending to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 16W and 24W, from 05N to 08N between 31W and 34W, and from 03N to 05N between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered over southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Moist onshore flow is assisting development of areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast of southwest Louisiana. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh winds just north of the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere across the south-central Gulf, north of a surface trough analyzed along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft near the Yucatan Peninsula, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Other than the aforementioned fog, no major weather is noted. For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin through Sun, supporting light breezes over the northeast Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere through Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the northern Gulf Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the central Caribbean along a surface trough extending the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia to southern Haiti. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers north of Panama along the monsoon trough. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time across the basin. High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across all but the far northwest part of the Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. Light to gentle E breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the far northwest Caribbean west of 85W. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will continue to maintain generally moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into early next week, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage and Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid/upper level trough is supporting a line of thunderstorms over the Gulf Stream east of northeast Florida, north of 30N along roughly 78W. A weakening stationary front reaches from 31N55W to 28N60W. High pressure is building west of the front, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE flow west of 55W, with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. Farther east between 35W and 55W, strong 1036 high pressure over the Azores Islands is maintaining a broad area of fresh to strong trade winds south of 25N with 7 to 11 ft seas, and moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 6 to 9 ft seas in E swell. East 35W fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas persist. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will continue to build south and east into the area into the weekend, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N by Sat. $$ Christensen
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