Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. Gale-force northerly winds are forecast to occur behind the boundary along the coast near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, on Tuesday and Wednesday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from there to 05N30W to 03N43W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection exists from 01N to 08N between 25W and 38W. Similar convection exists from 02N to 05N between 11W and 14W and from 05N to 07N between 41W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Generally quiet weather conditions exist across the Gulf of Mexico today supported by surface high pressure centered over Florida, and zonal flow and dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface winds are generally out of the southeast and south over much of the region, and are strongest over the northwestern waters closer to a low pressure system located over the south-central U.S. A stationary front is located over the far northeastern waters, just south of the Florida Panhandle, but no significant shower activity is noted near the boundary. Fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf will persist through early Monday. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Monday night, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tuesday, then move across the SE Gulf on Wednesday. See the Special Features section above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shower activity has persisted during the past several hours near and to the south of Hispaniola from 16N to 21N between 68W and 72W. This activity appears to be primarily associated with a surface trough. Otherwise, generally fair weather exists across the remainder of the region. The trade winds are lighter than normal today due to a cold front that lies to the north of the region. Winds and seas will increase east of 80W tonight through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wednesday, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wednesday night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends into the area near 31N67W, extends to 25N77W, and then becomes a dissipating stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 150 n mi east of the front north of 27N. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low and associated surface trough is producing a small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 24N between 49W and 51W. Farther east, another cold front enters the area near 31N23W, and it extends southwestward to 28N35W and westward to 30N47W. Strong northwesterly winds and isolated showers exist behind this boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure is supporting generally fair weather conditions. The cold front over the western Atlantic is forecast to weaken as it quickly moves eastward. A much stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tuesday night, then extend from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on Wednesday night. Strong N winds and building seas are expected across much of the region following the front. The front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thursday, then stall over the central waters on Thursday night. $$ Cangialosi
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