NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... Meteo-France is continuing a gale warning for the eastern portion of the Agadir area off Morocco through at least 0900 UTC, with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 03N37W to off the coast of French Guiana near 05N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 13W and 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... A squall line is evident over the north central Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are noted in an arc extending from 60 nm off Mobile Bay to 120 nm off Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. The dynamics aloft supporting these thunderstorms are related to a deep layer low pressure area moving through the southern Rockies. At the surface, recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over northeast Mexico. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure over the Carolinas will continue to dominate the eastern Gulf waters the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will result in an increase in winds and seas across the Gulf region later today through Fri. Under this weather pattern, expect fresh to strong E to SE winds, and building seas of up to 10 or 11 ft Thu and Fri. Similar marine conditions are expected in the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered off the Carolinas and extending southward through the Bahamas is supporting only moderate trade winds across the Caribbean, with fresh trade winds over the southeast and south-central Caribbean, and off the coast of central Honduras. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in most areas. A few thunderstorms are active off western Cuba, near the end of a stationary front over central Cuba. For the forecast, the weak high pressure will continue to maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin through Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Sun night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN A cold front reaches from 31N42W to 24N52W then is stationary through the southern Bahamas to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted west of 60W with 4 to 6 ft in open waters. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the front. Light to gentle breezes are evident west the front to 60W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft however in this area. This is due to northerly swell associated with a 1004 mb low centered north of the area near 39N39W. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 43N15W to 25N40W. Outside of the strong to gale force winds off Morocco mentioned in the Special Features section, this pattern is supporting generally moderate to fresh NE to E across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in ridge axis, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except higher in the area of gales off Morocco. Satellite imagery suggests an area of suspended African dust across the tropical Atlantic south of 20N from the West African coast to 40W. For the forecast for west to 65W: the stationary front will gradually become aligned E to W along 22N/23N through Thu then sink southward, approaching Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands by Fri night. The pressure gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W Wed through Fri with seas peaking around 10 or 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu. $$ Christensen
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