Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 05N09W then continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection 200 nm south of the monsoon trough. Near the coast of Brazil, scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 02S-01N between 31W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 27N92W with a trailing cold front extending SW to 23N97W just N of Tampico, Mexico and a warm front extends to the east of the low to 28N89W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are east of the front from 23N to the northern Gulf coast along the FL Panhandle. To the south, a surface trough is near 19N95W to 22N96W with few showers near the trough and the coast of Mexico. In the eastern Gulf coast, a 1019 mb high pressure is present near 29N84W. ASCAT data indicates moderate easterly winds along the eastern Gulf and behind the cold front, while light and gentle winds prevail in the Bay of Campeche. Low pressure in the NW Gulf will shift offshore and move across the northern and central Gulf through Mon night, reaching S FL by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night ahead of a third front which may impact the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Light to moderate winds dominate the Caribbean basin, except near the coast of Colombia where fresh northeasterly winds are occurring. A surface trough extends from 11N69W to 17N66W and is supporting scattered showers within 180 nm east of the trough axis. Scattered showers are noticeable over Puerto Rico to the north of the trough, across Hispaniola and the US Virgin Islands. Upper-level ridging dominates across the basin with abundant drier air-mass limiting convection west of 49W. Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds on Thu night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area from 31N69W south to 23N76W in the central Bahamas, then weakens to 23N80W near the coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic extending from 31N40W to 23N49W, then stalls to 17N58W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this front north of 21N to 31N between 43W-47W. To the east, a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 31N18W. A cold front extending from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas will drift E and dissipate through Mon. Another cold front will move into the northern portion by Mon night, eventually stalling along 26N by mid-week and then lifting northward, with a reinforcing front dropping S Thu night and Fri. $$ MMTorres
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