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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.


A tropical wave is along 25W from 11N southward, moving W around 
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 
90 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly from 02N-06N. The
wave is located about 4 degrees east of the model diagnosed
location of the 700 mb trough. TPW imagery from CIMSS has been
helpful in tracking this tropical wave during the past 24 hours.


The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and
extends to 06N23W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 
04N26W and extends to 03N31W to 05N39W to 05N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm south and 150 nm north of the
ITCZ between 36W and the coast of South America, with isolated
moderate convection between 27W-36W. An area of scattered moderate
convection is seen farther east from 01N-05N between 14W-22W. 


A 1016 mb surface high centered in the western Atlantic extends a 
ridge westward across the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT shows that gentle 
anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf. There is still a 
fairly strong pressure gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico 
between the high in the W Atlantic and low pressure over northern 
Mexico and the Central Plains. This is causing fresh SE winds for 
much of the western Gulf. Early this morning, expect strong winds 
over portions of the SW Gulf. The low pressure over the Central 
Plains will weaken during the next couple of days and allow strong
SE to S winds to gradually diminish through Fri. Surface troughs 
moving W from the Yucatan will generate strong winds over the Bay 
of Campeche each night through Sun night.

Smoke from fires across Mexico continues to be noted in satellite
data and observations over the western Gulf. Although the smoke 
is not as dense as previous days, it is still noticeable in 
portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, close to the Mexican 
coast. The smoke will continue to produce hazy skies and reduce 
visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the
next several days.


A broad area of cloudiness with embedded scattered showers
prevails across the central Caribbean between 72W-83W. Some of 
this activity is noted across Hispaniola and adjacent waters.
Scattered moderate convection is over Nicaragua and the waters
from 10N-15N west of 80W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and fresh winds north
of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to 
occasionally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean 
and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. The high will weaken 
and allow winds to become moderate through this weekend. A 
tropical wave will reach the Tropical Atlantic waters early Sat. 


A 1016 surface high is near 31N75W supporting fair weather across
the far west Atlantic west of 73W. The remnants of Andrea are 
near 31N68W. Winds of 20-30 kt and seas 8-11 ft extend out to 120 
nm in the SE quad of the remnants. An upper-level low is near 
28N70W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N68W to 20N72W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N-27N between 64W-
68W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere from 
20N-31N between 63W-73W. Surface ridging prevails across the 
remainder of the basin.

Post-tropical Cyclone Andrea will weaken as it moves ENE today 
and begins to interact with a cold front sinking S into the 
region. The cold front will sink S across the northern waters 
today and tonight and eventually stall from E to W between 24N to 
25N Fri. Elsewhere moderate winds will prevail across the region 
through Sat. 

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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