NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W/57W southward of 16N and moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture with this tropical wave. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of this wave from 07N-09N between 53W-57W. Enhanced convection is also noted along the Guyana coast. This wave may enhance showers over the Windward Islands beginning late today and the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday. The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W south of 22N and moving W at 15 kt. TPW imagery shows that a plume of enhanced moisture accompanies the tropical wave. No significant convection is noted over water. Some scattered showers are seen over Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 15N-17N between 11W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 21W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level low is over the U.S. southern Plains, with mid-level troughing extending across the basin to the NW Caribbean and western Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front continues to move across the NW Gulf. At 1500 UTC, it stretches from central Louisiana near 29N92W to just south Texas/Mexico border near 26N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 26N93W to 22N98W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring in the western Gulf from 22N-26N between 92W-97W. Scattered moderate convection is in the NW Gulf from 26N-30N between 88W-97W. In the eastern Gulf, a trough continues to drift northward and at 1500 UTC, it was analyzed at the north-central Florida coast near 28N83W to south of SE Louisiana near 28N89W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 24N- 30N between 83W-87W. Gentle to moderate easterly and southerly winds are seen across most of the basin with moderate NE winds behind the cold front off the Texas coast. Seas range 2 to 6 ft. Weak low pressure is located just inland north of Tampa FL this morning, with a surface trough extending west into the Gulf. Both the low and trough will lift northward and move out of the Gulf Tue night. Fresh east winds will occur north of this front. A weak cold front has moved off the Texas coast this morning, and will weaken further as it stalls toward the central Gulf Tue. Smoke and haze from fires over southern Mexico will likely reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will prevail for the end of the week into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are noted off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, otherwise no significant convection is noted. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with gentle southerly winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, then remain fresh into mid-week, then remain fresh into the weekend. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. During periods of lesser winds, smoke from fires in Central America may restrict visibility in the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave along 84W will cross the western Caribbean into Wed, before exiting into Central America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 1500 UTC, a 1010 mb low is along the central Florida coast near 29N81W with a trough extending from that low to 28N78W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in the western Atlantic near this trough from 25N-31N between 75W-81W. Fresh easterly winds are north of the trough with fresh southerly winds south of the trough. Another trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 28N65W to 23N69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough from 21N-28N between 58W-66W. In the central Atlantic, two 1020 mb lows are analyzed near 28N43W and near 24N47W. A trough extends along the lows from 28N39W to 23N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough and lows. Another trough continues to linger off the coast of Africa from 31N26W to 21N17W with no significant convection associated with it. The weak surface trough S of 27N will move inland, north of the area, by Wed. $$ AReinhart
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