NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Dec 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 05N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 08N between 20W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 15Z, a frontal trough extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough axis N of 27N. Fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are seen over the north-central Gulf ahead of trough. High pressure of 1025 mb located over central Florida extends a ridge over the remainder of the Gulf waters supporting, in general, gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, and 2 to 4 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, the above mentioned ridge will move southward into tonight, allowing a cold front to move into the northern Gulf. The front will stall across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas from eastern Cuba to Honduras, and south of Jamaica into the SW Caribbean to about 11N. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are also active off Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas dominate the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are active off NE Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted over the east and central portions of the basin. For the forecast, as previously mentioned high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and off Colombia. The high pressure will weaken through tonight, allowing winds and seas to slightly diminish through Sat. Looking ahead, the high pressure will build again Sat night, supporting increased winds and seas across portions of the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N48W to the north coast of Haiti where it becomes stationary. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas in NW to N swell follow the front. A broad ridge extending from 1026 mb high pressure located NE of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas is maintaining gentle winds elsewhere west of the front, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in N swell. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are observed by scatterometer data offshore NE Florida to about 72W. These winds are associated with a strong low pressure system that covers the eastern of the United States. A trough is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic along 25W from 20N to 25N. This trough is the surface reflection of a large upper-level low spinning over that area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are related to this system. Farther east, a ridge extending from 1034 mb high pressure located north of Madeira in the eastern Atlantic dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the aforementioned trough is producing an area of fresh to strong winds N of 25N E of 28W. Seas are 9 to 13 ft, based on an altimeter pass, within these winds. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range can be found across the offshore waters from Guinea to Senegal. Moderate to fresh winds are noted farther west over the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, a stalling cold front from 25N48W to Hispaniola will weaken tonight then dissipate Fri. Another front will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight, reaching from Bermuda to Straits of Florida by late Fri, from 31N55W to the Windward Passage by late Sat, then will stall and dissipate along 22N through Sun. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat through Mon following the front. $$ GR
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