Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coast Liberia near 05N09W to 02N14W. The ITCZ extends from 02N14W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02S to 04N between 13W- 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb low pressure was located off the Alabama coast near 29N87W. A stationary front extends west of the low near 27N97W and to the east along the FL Panhandle to near 29N82W. Scattered showers moderate convection are seen along the stationary front in the NE Gulf, N of 28N and E of 88W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are seen from 23N-30N between 84W-97W. Areas of fog and low ceilings are present north of 26N and west of 88W. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect from the coast of Alabama westward to the Texas coastline near Brownsville, Texas. A trough is in the Bay of Campeche from 22N89W top 18N91W. ASCAT data and surface observations depict gentle winds across most of the basin, with moderate winds in the NE Gulf. Seas range from 2 to 5 ft. The stationary front over the northern Gulf, associated with weak low pressure will weaken and lift northward later today. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue night and slowly move southward through Wed night, followed by a stronger reinforcing cold front that will quickly cross the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of this front offshore of Veracruz, Mexico Fri into Fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across the Gulf following the second cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean Sea continues to weaken. Scattered showers linger across the Lesser Antilles, as well as the waters west of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air is seen over the central and western portions of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades south of 16N between 68W-79W, with near gale- force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10N-12N between 74W- 77W. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the NW and eastern Caribbean. Seas near Colombia are up to 9 ft with 3-5 ft elsewhere. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Thu night, then diminish Fri as high pressure weakens north of the area. Long period N to NE swell will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu, then subside Fri and Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the western Atlantic near Jacksonville, FL and continues along the east coast to 34N. To the east, surface trough extends from 29N79W to 28N80W into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms remain east of the trough from 27N-31N between 72W-78W. Showers are also seen along the front. Another stationary front is further east enters the area near 31N59W west to 27N72W, with scattered showers in the vicinity. Two troughs are analyzed in the west-central Atlantic: one from 27N57W to 21N63W, and the other from 25N49W to 20N52W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are associated with both of these features. High pressure dominates the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on the north side of the stationary front/shear line with seas up to 8 ft. A weak, slow-moving cold front will move over the NW portion today, then lift north of the area tonight. A high pressure ridge will extend across the northern waters through mid week, ahead of the next cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed. This front will briefly stall over the northern waters Wed night and Thu, then push southward across the region Thu night through Fri night. Gale conditions are possible W of the front across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N swell expected to impact much of the area by Fri night. $$ MMT
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