Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A 1000 mb low pressure just offshore of South Carolina extends a cold front from near 33N78W to near Jacksonville Florida to Cedar Key Florida. Gale force SW winds will develop ahead of the front very soon, early this morning, north of 29N and east of 76W, and progress E to 67W through the morning hours as the front orients from E of Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by tonight. Some SW gales may linger ahead of the front into early Thu as far E as 59W. Behind the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 29N between 62W and 75W this afternoon into early Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into the area Fri through Fri night N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas will build up to 18 ft over the gale area starting this morning and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03S-06N between 27W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 01/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida near 29N83W to 26N90W to NE Mexico near 24N98W. A line of moderate showers with embedded isolated tstorms is over central Florida ahead of the front and extends into the eastern Gulf. Isolated showers are elsewhere along the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds in the northern Gulf of Mexico behind the front. The cold front will race SE and clear the Gulf by this afternoon. Strong NW winds and seas of up to 9 ft will follow the front over the NE Gulf through midday today. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the basin late today, and remain relatively tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging covers the eastern half of the Caribbean. Dry air covers most of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean, with strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds cover much of the remainder of the basin. As high pressure over the W Atlantic weakens and moves SE, winds and seas in the Caribbean will remain fairly tranquil through the week. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Channel this evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas. Scattered thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters to the east of northern Florida are associated with a surface trough that is located ahead of the cold front discussed in the Special Features section. A complex system of three lows are situated from 35N-40N between 38W-58W. A warm front extends from the low just off the South Carolina coast near 34N78W to 31N67W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N51W to 29N60W to 31N67W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds on both sides of the this front between 51W-61W. A warm front extends from 32N49N to 30N48W, and transitions to a dissipating cold front to 27N40W to 28N33W. An upper-level low north of the area is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 41W-50W. Farther east, yet another cold front enters the area near 32N29N and extends to 29N30W to 18N43W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between 25W-31W. A 1015 mb high is centered north of the Virgin Islands near 21N64W. Intensifying low pressure off the South Carolina coast with a strong trailing cold front moving east of northern Florida this morning will race E and be E of Bermuda and the Bahamas by tonight. The front will then be just N of Puerto Rico by Fri. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop early this morning by 01/0600 UTC north of 29N and E of 76W, then expand E through late tonight. NW gales will also develop behind the front over the same area this afternoon through early Thu. $$ Hagen
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