Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 25W from 11N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly from 02N-06N. The wave is located about 4 degrees east of the model diagnosed location of the 700 mb trough. TPW imagery from CIMSS has been helpful in tracking this tropical wave during the past 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends to 06N23W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 04N26W and extends to 03N31W to 05N39W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south and 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W and the coast of South America, with isolated moderate convection between 27W-36W. An area of scattered moderate convection is seen farther east from 01N-05N between 14W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb surface high centered in the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward across the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT shows that gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf. There is still a fairly strong pressure gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico between the high in the W Atlantic and low pressure over northern Mexico and the Central Plains. This is causing fresh SE winds for much of the western Gulf. Early this morning, expect strong winds over portions of the SW Gulf. The low pressure over the Central Plains will weaken during the next couple of days and allow strong SE to S winds to gradually diminish through Fri. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan will generate strong winds over the Bay of Campeche each night through Sun night. Smoke from fires across Mexico continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf. Although the smoke is not as dense as previous days, it is still noticeable in portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, close to the Mexican coast. The smoke will continue to produce hazy skies and reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of cloudiness with embedded scattered showers prevails across the central Caribbean between 72W-83W. Some of this activity is noted across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is over Nicaragua and the waters from 10N-15N west of 80W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and fresh winds north of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. The high will weaken and allow winds to become moderate through this weekend. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical Atlantic waters early Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 surface high is near 31N75W supporting fair weather across the far west Atlantic west of 73W. The remnants of Andrea are near 31N68W. Winds of 20-30 kt and seas 8-11 ft extend out to 120 nm in the SE quad of the remnants. An upper-level low is near 28N70W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N68W to 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N-27N between 64W- 68W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere from 20N-31N between 63W-73W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Post-tropical Cyclone Andrea will weaken as it moves ENE today and begins to interact with a cold front sinking S into the region. The cold front will sink S across the northern waters today and tonight and eventually stall from E to W between 24N to 25N Fri. Elsewhere moderate winds will prevail across the region through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen
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