NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, with the end of the axis reaching the coast of Liberia. The ITCZ begins just offshore Liberia near 07N12W, then extends SW to 04N20W to 00N30W to 01N40W to 01S45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 130-140 nm offshore of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 02N and from 10W to 23W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from the equator to 07N between 32W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends off the Texas and Louisiana coasts to NE Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted north of the front, over the coastal waters. Moist air near the front is the focus for dense fog across the coastal waters from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The fog will begin to dissipate this afternoon but will return overnight. Gentle to moderate E shifting to SE winds in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident elsewhere. Light SE breezes are also observed in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front off the Texas and Louisiana coast will move a little through midweek. Another push of cold air will move the front more rapidly Thu. This front will then move E across the Gulf through Fri, bringing fresh to strong N winds in its wake. Gales are expected Fri offshore Veracruz, Mexico, behind the front. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat across the basin as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. High pressure centered NE of the northern Bahamas along 28N supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of the Lesser Antilles. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a large band of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, from the coast of South America near 10N to 16N between 66W and 82W. Seas are moderate to rough in these areas. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat. These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening to early morning hours through Thu. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure center is located just NE of the northern Bahamas along 28N. Light to gentle flow is around this high north of 25 N and west of 65W. An elongated surface trough axis continues along 55W-56W from 16N to 31N. Isolated showers are within 130 nm of this feature north of 25N. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure near the Bahamas allows for a tight pressure gradient, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds from the south of 25N and west of the trough, where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NE swell. Winds shift to a more easterly direction over and near the Greater Antilles, where sea heights are slightly lower near 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, a ridge of high pressure stretches to the central Atlantic and towards the northern trough axis along 55W. The tight pressure gradient support fresh to locally strong E winds north of 23N between 30W and 45W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh trades continue in the deep tropics from 04N to 14N between 22W and 47W, including over the Cape Verde Islands. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north of the equator to 14N between 25W and 50W. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate. For the forecast, high pressure along 28N will shift east by late week as a week cold front stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds will likely increase Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri and reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat. $$ Mora
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