Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon and reach the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun morning. NW to N gale force winds around 25 to 35 kts will be possible in the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 12 feet from Sun evening through Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High centered near 28N67W and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale- force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will continue through Wed. The present Gale will end on 23/1800 UTC, and start again on 24/0300 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends from a deep 959 mb low north of our area at 44N33W west-southwestward to 31N35W to 26N52W to 29N63W. The front will push southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead of the front N of 29N until 23/1800 UTC. Seas will peak at 22 ft under a NW swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic waters near 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 400 nm north and south of the ITCZ between 21W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is inland over S Texas. Scatterometer data indicates southeasterly gentle to moderate across the basin with locally fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Central Gulf of Mexico. Latest observations report areas of fog lingering along the coast of Texas and Louisiana. The fog extends over the Gulf of Mexico by up to 90 nm offshore of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the N central Gulf waters will weaken across the Gulf waters today as a cold front moves off the Texas coast early this afternoon. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico by Sun morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon. The front will weaken on Tue, as it moves northward as a warm front. Gale force winds are expected west of the front in the far SW Gulf from early Sun evening through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1026 mb High and the Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the Special Features section above for details about the Gale conditions and forecast discussion. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale force along the coast of Colombia, through Wed. Long period north to northeast swell will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages east of 65W through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front north of our area is producing gale-force winds ahead of it into our northeastern corner today. See the Special Features section above for more details. A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N68W. Further east, A cold front extends from a deep 959 mb low north of our area at 44N33W west-southwestward to 31N35W to 26N52W to 29N63W. Scattered showers are present within 180 nm southeast of the cold front between 27W-42W. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to 20N42W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, the surface high will shift slowly southeastward through Sun night ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Sun. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon, before stalling and weakening along roughly 26N through Tue night. High pressure north of the area will shift eastward Tue through Wed night as a trough approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected over much of the waters Tue through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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