NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that stretches from South Florida to western Cuba will move SE of the area by this evening. Strong winds follow this front, with gale force W to NW winds occurring over the NE Gulf. Seas behind the front in the area of highest winds range from 12 to 17 ft. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure builds into the area in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the NE coast of Florida. Gale force S to SW winds are observed east of the cold front. Gale force W to NW winds will develop behind the front, N of 27N, through Mon. Seas of 10 to 14 ft already ongoing in the area of gale force winds will increase to 12 to 18 ft behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to near 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N17W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 32W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for the NE Gulf. A cold front extends from south Florida to western Cuba. Ahead of the front, a squall line of thunderstorms stretches across the Florida Straits. The cold front and associated squall line will exit the basin by this evening. High pressure centered is building in the wake of the cold front, bringing strong to near gale W to NW winds to much of the area. Seas are generally 8 to 15 ft, except for the NW Gulf where seas of 3-6 ft are noted. For the forecast, the cold front will exit the SE Gulf by this evening. Gale force W to NW winds will continue over the NE Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Fresh to strong NW winds will then continue over the far eastern Gulf through Mon morning. Winds and waves will gradually diminish over the Gulf late tonight through Mon as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. A new cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from western Cuba to western Honduras, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 90 nm ahead of it. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are noted west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean at night along the coast of Colombia through Tue. Then, the area of fresh to strong winds will expand over the central Caribbean Tue night through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic. A cold front has moved off the coast of NE Florida. A squall line is out ahead of the front and east of Florida and the NW Bahamas. Gale- force SW winds are ahead of the cold front, with seas of 10 to 14 ft. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted west of the front. Farther east, another cold front enters the discussion waters from 31N44W to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm east of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 8-12 ft are noted north of the front. Low pressure is centered near 31N26W, with associated cold front extending to near 27N25W to 21N28W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 330 nm south semicircle of the low. Strong to near- gale force winds are within 300 nm NW of the low, with fresh to strong winds within 300 nm SW quadrant and east semicircle. Seas of 10-15 ft are within 210 nm west semicircle of the low, with seas of 8-10 ft elsewhere within 450 nm west and 270 nm east semicircle of the low. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere over the Atlantic discussion waters. For the forecast W of 65W, gale force winds will continue on both sides of the cold front as it moves eastward through Mon afternoon, when the front is forecast to extend from 31N67W to the SE Bahamas. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue to affect the northern waters through Tue morning. High pressure will bring gentle winds Tue night through Wed. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night. $$ AL
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