The measure of a man's real character is what he would do if he knew he never would be found out - Thomas B. Macaulay
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia and enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W
extending to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 01.5S35W
to coastal Brazil near 00.5S49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted south of 05N and between 04W and 26W ,
and between 37W and 50W.


An Atlantic subtropical ridge persists over the NE Gulf this
afternoon. The associated pressure gradient between this ridge 
and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas is resulting in fresh to 
locally strong E-SE to SE winds west of 85W. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail in the rest of the Gulf, with seas to 5 ft in the Straits
of Florida. Widely scattered showers are observed across the Texas
and SW Louisiana coastal waters, embedded in the return flow, while
tranquil weather conditions are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will remain across the 
NE Gulf and combine with relatively lower pressure in the western
Gulf to produce fresh to strong winds pulsing off the northwest 
Yucatan peninsula during the next several nights. Similar winds 
are also forecast in the western Gulf tonight. Otherwise, 
moderate winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A 
cold may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed by 
fresh northeast winds. 


A deep layered upper trough extending from the western Atlantic
S-SW across the central Caribbean supports a surface trough over 
Hispaniola. These features continue to produce scattered moderate
thunderstorms across Hispaniola, while a cluster of showers and a
few thunderstorms is presently over the nearshore waters along 
the south side of the island. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and lower 
pressures in NW Colombia support moderate to locally fresh winds
across NW portions, and fresh NE winds in the south-central 
Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across NW portions, and of 4-6 ft
across the south central and southwest portions. Strong NE winds
prevail through the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft and
building. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas
of 3-6 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will 
result in fresh to locally strong trade winds pulsing nightly in 
the south-central Caribbean Sea through Wed night. Fresh to 
occasionally strong winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage,
south of the Dominican Republic and in the lee of Cuba through 
early Thu, then in the Windward Passage at night through Sun. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can 
be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the 
week, then become confined to mostly the central and eastern 
sections of the basin Sat through Sun night.


A frontal trough, supported by a deep layered upper trough,
extends from 30N63W to NW Hispaniola. Another surface troughs is 
east of there, from near 21N63W to the Virgin Islands. Abundant 
low level moisture and divergence aloft to the east of the upper 
trough are resulting in scattered moderate convection south of 29N
and between 53W and the frontal trough. Moderate to locally fresh
NE winds are west of this main trough and extend into the 
Bahamas. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. To the east of the trough, 
moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring
north of 15N to 50W. The remainder of the basin is under broad 
ridging, supporting mainly fresh easterly trade winds and 7-9 ft 
seas south of 20N and west of 35W.

A broad 1009 mb low pressure system persists south of the Azores,
sustaining moderate to fresh westerly winds and 6-8 ft seas north
of 28N and between 23W and 42W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are present.

For the forecast W of 55W, the large trough extending from 30N63W
to NW Hispaniola will continue to produce scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms to the east of it tonight. The supporting
upper level trough will shift eastward through Thu, with active
weather remaining to the east of this feature. A weak low 
pressure is expected to form near 24N57W Wed night and track 
northeastward. Decaying NE swell across the waters est of 65W to 
the Leeward islands will linger through early Wed afternoon. High 
pressure will build over the waters north of about 20N later this 
week allowing for generally tranquil marine conditions. A cold 
front may move over the waters east of northeast Florida late Sun 
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could precede this 


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