NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough is primarily over land across western Africa,
and exits the coast of Mauritania and extends southwestward to
near 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 03.5N31W to the 
coast of Brazil near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen from 01N to 05.5N between 13W and 32W, and
south of 01N between 35W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this afternoon,
anchored by 1021 mb high pressure centered across the northeastern
Gulf. Weak troughs are analyzed along the west coast of the 
Florida peninsula, and over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest 
Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
across most of the basin, except light and variable northeast
portions. Wave heights are 2 ft or less in the northeast Gulf, 
and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No shower or thunderstorm activity is 
noted at this time across the entire basin as stable atmospheric
conditions prevail. Recent land-based observations over southern 
Mexico indicate visibilities of 2 to 5 miles due to smoke from 
local agricultural and forest fires, and this is likely impacting 
the near shore waters, especially with the sun low on the horizon.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through at least the middle of the week supporting gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay 
of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects 
related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of 
Florida Mon night through Wed night as high pressure centered NE 
of Florida strengthens. By Monday night, SE winds are forecast to 
increase over the western Gulf and persist through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad mid to upper trough reaches from the western Atlantic,
across Cuba and the northwest Caribbean to Honduras and Nicaragua.
Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough continues
to support deep-layered moisture across the central and eastern 
Caribbean, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 
southwest Caribbean coastal waters of eastern Panama and Colombia.
Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is
producing scattered passing showers across much of the eastern 
Caribbean and adjacent islands east of 67W. Drier conditions are 
noted over the northwest Caribbean, under the influence of the 
northern flow aloft west of the trough. At the surface, the 
pattern is influenced by relatively weak 1021 mb high pressure 
north of the area, NE of the northern Bahamas, and the resident 
low pressure off Colombia. This pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate easterly flow across the basin along with 2 to 4 ft seas,
except fresh NE winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh E-NE
winds in the lee of Cuba. Recent altimeter data shows seas of 5 
to 7 ft off of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds 
at night in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore 
Colombia, with moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, 
winds will pulse to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward 
Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western Atlantic
NE of the Bahamas near 29N77W, just west of a persistent broad surface
trough that extends northward from the central Dominican Republic
toward Bermuda. Marine conditions continue to gradually improve
across the waters west of the trough, with gentle or weaker winds
and seas 5 ft or less W of the trough. Divergent flow aloft is 
assisting the development of a few clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms east of the trough, extending from the Atlantic 
coastal waters of Puerto Rico to near 27N60W. Farther east, a 
frontal boundary reaches from the eastern Azores Islands to 
29N54W. Strong high pressure prevail north of the boundary across
the N central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas W of 60W, and moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell E of 65W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift 
eastward and continue to weaken as a cold front across the SE U.S. 
moves south of 31N tonight, reaching from near 31N62W to NE Florida 
by Mon morning, from 31N57W to the NW Bahamas by Tue morning, and
from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas Tue evening before 
weakening. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas will follow the front. High pressure in the wake of the front
will dominate most of the forecast waters the remainder of the 
work-week. 

$$
Stripling