NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected off the N coast of Colombia late Sat night into Sun morning, with seas of 8-10 ft expected. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 02N25W to 02N40W to the coast of northern Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-14N between the west coast of Africa and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-02N between 27W-33W. Scattered showers are seen elsewhere near the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An east-west oriented stationary front is draped across the N Gulf coast from Tallahassee Florida to Lake Charles Louisiana. Low stratus clouds and dense fog are observed near the front, especially over the waters just offshore of Louisiana. The dense fog is likely to persist through early Sat morning, possibly spreading to portions of the Texas coast. A surface trough extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana to Tampico Mexico. The SE Gulf is under the influence of a receding ridge of high pressure that extends E to the western Atlantic. Gentle wind speeds and seas of 3 ft or less currently prevail over the entire Gulf of Mexico. The stationary front along N Gulf Coast will move S over the N Gulf as a cold front tonight, become stationary again by Sat afternoon, and then retreat northward back over the SE United States as a warm front on Sun. High pressure building north of the front over the SE United States will support a gradual increase of SE winds and building seas across the W Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE to S winds possible in the NW Gulf by Sun night. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Mon as the high shifts farther east with a weak cold front moving over the NW Gulf Mon afternoon. The front should stall over the NW and W Gulf on Tue, with some reinforcing cool air behind the front arriving Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades are noted across the central Caribbean Sea. Near gale force winds are expected tonight in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with gales expected late Saturday night. For more information about the Gale Warning, see the Special Features section above. Fresh trades prevail in the E Caribbean, with mainly gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin outside of the stronger winds near the coast of Colombia, where seas are up to 8 ft. Mainly fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery with isolated trade wind showers possible. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours Sat night through the middle of next week. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras on Monday through Wednesday. N swell will propagate near the NE Caribbean Passages Monday night through at least Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W, a cold front extends from 32N64W to 30N73W to St. Augustine Florida. Fresh SW to W winds are within 120 nm south of the front, mainly east of 77W. Strong SW to W winds are north of 29N between 57W-65W. Overcast clouds along with isolated to scattered showers extend from 60 nm S of the front to a few hundred nm N of the front. A 1018 mb high pressure near 24N65W extends a ridge W to the Florida Keys. NW swell of 7-11 ft prevails north of 20N and east of 67W, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere outside of the Bahamas. Seas are 2-4 ft west of the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front should reach along 28N by Sat afternoon, then merge with a reinforcing front along 25N east of the Bahamas by Sun afternoon, stall along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon, and then dissipate on Tue. A strong Bermuda High will build over the area in the wake of this front. A new cold front may emerge off of the SE United States coast on Tue before weakening on Wed. East of 60W, a cold front extends from 32N44W to 28N50W, where the front becomes stationary to 26N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N between 41W-47W. Over the eastern Atlantic, 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 33N22W. Moderate to fresh NE flow was observed by scatterometer over most of the eastern tropical Atlantic. NW swell of 8-13 ft covers the majority of the area north of 22N between 37W-60W. Seas of 7-9 ft are over the E Atlantic from 14N-27N between 19W-37W. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough, is observed from the monsoon trough north to 28N between 15W-30W. $$ Hagen
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