NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African 
continent, reaching into the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of 
Guinea near 09N13W and extending to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues 
from 08N16W to 04N30W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 14W and 23W between 03N to 19N. Another area of 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along 
the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 32W to 51W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico, 
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered near the central 
coast of Louisiana. A surface trough is analyzed over the central 
Gulf from 26N90W to 25N87W. Cloudiness with possible embedded 
showers is noted between this trough and another surface trough 
analyzed across the western Gulf near Brownsville, Texas to 
19N94W. A recent scatterometer pass observed moderate to
occasionally fresh NE to E winds over the south-central Gulf and 
Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail. Seas 
are 3 to 4 ft near the Yucatan Peninsula, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the N Gulf and
dominate the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil conditions 
for the next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter 
the N Gulf on Mon. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the 
central Caribbean, associated with a surface trough extending near
Santa Marta, Colombia to 17N75W. Fresh to strong winds are 
evident on satellite derived winds on either side of the trough 
between 13N and Hispaniola. Another surface trough is analyzed 
east of the Yucatan Peninsula and coast of Belize from 22N86W to 
17N88W. Near the northern coast of Panama along the east Pacific 
monsoon trough, trade wind convergence is supporting scattered 
showers. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is evident 
elsewhere across the basin at this time. 

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh 
NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the remainder of the 
basin, with the exception of light to gentle E breezes and 1 to 3 
ft seas over the far northwest Caribbean west of 85W. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will 
maintain only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
into early next week, with nighttime fresh to strong winds 
pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage Fri night
through Sun night. Moderate NE swell over the tropical N Atlantic
is expected for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms 
along a surface trough analyzed near the northern Bahamas from 
30N78W to 26N77W. A scatterometer pass indicated fresh to locally
strong winds are within 80 nm east of the surface trough north of
28N. To the east, a weakening stationary front reaches from 
30N56W to 28N59W. High pressure is building behind the front, 
supporting gentle to moderate E to SE flow west of 55W, with 4 to 
6 ft seas in open waters. Farther east between 35W and 55W, strong
1037 mb Azores high pressure is maintaining a broad area of fresh
to strong trade winds south of 27N with 7 to 11 ft seas, and 
moderate E to SE winds north of 27N with 6 to 9 ft seas in E 
swell. Fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail across
the open waters east of 35W. 

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and 
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by 
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at 
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure will build south
and east into the area through early next week, supporting 
tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several 
days. Moderate E swell over the Atlantic from 19N-22N between 55W-
65W is expected for the next several days. 

$$
Nepaul