NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 14N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen mostly ahead of the wave, south of 05.5N between 21W and 31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 11N southward and moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this feature on the latest analysis. A far western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 17N southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen inland from 12N to 15N between 83W and 87W, and in a small cluster across the far SW Caribbean south of 11N ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits western Africa into the Atlantic near 12N16W to 05N20W. An ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 00N36W to 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 07W and 16W. Numerous strong convection has reached the coast of Africa from 10N to 14N and extends out to 60 nm offshore from Guinea to Gambia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to 26N90W. Supported by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms are present east through southeast of the trough over the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida. A surface ridge extends from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the northeast Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the northwestern waters by early next week as pressure gradient increases in the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are coupling with divergent upper-level winds to produce Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the basin E of 68W, including the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted across the central and south central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from 31N40W to 30N45W. Widely scattered showers are evident north of 24N between 50W and 72W. Another surface trough reaches from southwest of the Azores across 31N35W to 25N45W. Widely scattered showers are occurring north of 25N between 31W and 45W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The subtropical ridge dominates much of the tropical Atlantic, supporting light to gentle winds with locally moderate winds and 2 to 5 ft seas. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north of 27N between 47W and 67W, and moderate to fresh southerly winds off the central and northern Florida coast. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through tonight as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, fresh winds are expected off the NE Florida coast through Sat morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and into early next week. $$ Stripling
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