Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A recent scatterometer pass detected gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf from 26N-27.5N between 85W-87W. These conditions will continue through the morning hours. By then, a cold front will be entering the northwest Gulf, and gale force NW to N winds are expected behind the front over the waters from Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. These winds will follow the front through the next 24 hours. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia each night through at least Wed night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic... A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic on Thu. SW gale force winds are forecast on Thu morning ahead of the front N of 29N and W of 74W with seas 10 to 16 feet. These winds will continue east of the front as it moves east across the Atlantic through Fri. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco... Meteo France is forecasting gale-force winds on Wed near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone called AGADIR. The Meteo France outlook for Thu calls for the possibility of gales in AGADIR and TARFAYA. For additional information, please visit the Meteo France website at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-05N between 32W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1039 mb surface high centered over the northeast Atlantic extends a ridge southward over the Southeast U.S. into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system over the south-central U.S. and northern Mexico is being supported by a large amplitude mid-upper level trough over the central U.S. The pressure gradient in between the high and low pressure systems is currently inducing strong to gale force S winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warnings in effect for the basin. A cold front will move off the Texas coast early Wed morning, a few hours prior to sunrise. Showers are thunderstorms are likely over the Gulf of Mexico prior to and along with the frontal passage. NW-N gale winds are expected over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wed behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Typical scattered trade winds showers cover portions of the eastern Caribbean E of 75W. At the middle and upper levels, anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea. However, at the surface, strong high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean. Expect strong NE to E winds across much of the Caribbean through Thu, with gale winds pulsing off Colombia, as strong high pressure north of the area remains in place. See the section above for more information about the Gale Warning currently in effect. Expect seas well over 8 feet for large portions of the Caribbean, highest from 10N-16N between 74W-80W, where 10-15 ft seas are expected. Farther east, large NW swell will move into Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands by Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front. This front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu, and will stall and dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N50W to 26N56W to 22N67W. It continues as a stationary front from 22N67W to 20N74W. A surface trough is just east of the front from 25N54W to 23N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the front, mainly N of 28N between 45W- 50W. This activity is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence in the area. However, strong winds around 25 kt and high seas currently cover most of the Atlantic to the north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles. The cold front extending from near 22N65W to the Windward Passage will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through the day before retreating eastward ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida by early Thu. Gale-force winds will prevail N of 29N ahead of the front on Thu. See the section above for details. The front will stall and weaken from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Low pressure may develop along the front Sat near the northern Bahamas and move northeast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
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