Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale off the coast of Morocco...

A 14/2216 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off the coast of
Morocco north of 30N and east of 12W in the region called AGADIR.
According to the latest forecast from Meteo France, winds to gale
force will continue to be possible off the coast of Morocco in 
Agadir through the early morning hours, subsiding below gale force
by late morning today. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast that is listed on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2 for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the west coast of Liberia near
07N11W and continues to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 04N24W. A surface trough is along 25W from 01N-09N. The ITCZ
continues west of the surface trough from 04N26W to 01S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270 nm of the ITCZ
between the W coast of Africa and 25W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of
the ITCZ from 26W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large, deep-layered low pressure system is centered over eastern
Mississippi and western Alabama. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front 
extends from a surface low near the Alabama/Georgia border to the
Florida Big Bend near 29N83W and across the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico to the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W, then continues through
Belize to central Guatemala. A squall line is analyzed at 0300 
UTC from west-central Florida near 27N82W to 25N83W. Radar shows 
that a line of strong thunderstorms at 0500 UTC extends from 
approximately Daytona Beach to Orlando to Ft. Myers Florida to 
26N83W, then continues SSW as a line of weaker showers and 
thunderstorms from 26N83W to 24N84W. To the west of this line, 
more moderate stratiform precipitation is noted over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 87W. A surface trough is located 
from 30N87W to 22N91W. In between the cold front and surface 
trough, overcast skies with scattered showers are noted. West of
the surface trough, no precipitation is noted as water vapor 
imagery shows a large dry slot extending over the western Gulf 
associated with the low over the SE United States. Although gale 
force winds have already ended in the Gulf of Mexico, seas will 
remain elevated through early this morning before gradually
subsiding.

The front will reach from the Port of Tampa to the Yucatan 
Channel early today, and continue east passing through the Bahama
Channel tonight. Strong to near gale force southerly flow and 
scattered thunderstorms will continue to precede the front across 
the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Strong to near 
gale force northwesterly flow will continue west of the front 
through sunrise this morning. Moderate west flow is expected this
evening as the seas will subside. Moderate return flow will set 
up across the northwest waters on Tue with broad low pressure 
developing over the southwest Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Yucatan Channel near
22N86W through central Belize and ending in central Guatemala near
15N90W. Isolated showers are noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and
in the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and the Isle of Youth. Water
vapor imagery shows relatively dry air in the eastern and central
Caribbean. A scatterometer pass from 15/0126Z shows fresh to 
strong winds in the central Caribbean, strongest off the coast of 
Colombia, where localized near-gales are likely occurring.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean 
east of 80W through early Sun, with nocturnal pulses to near gale 
force off the northwest coast of Colombia. The cold front that is
currently over the Yucatan Channel will stall and then gradually 
dissipate over the NW Caribbean tonight through Mon. Strong north
winds are forecast west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras 
early this morning through late Sun. Large north swell will reach 
the Leewards later today, and spread south through the Atlantic 
passages of the northeast Caribbean during the remainder of the
weekend, then will subside from the north early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection continues over the west Atlantic,
mostly west and north of a line from Cape Canaveral Florida to 
30N80W to 32N77W. This activity is from the same weather system 
that is producing scattered thunderstorms from central Florida
through the Carolinas. More convection is occurring just north of
the forecast area between 70W and the Carolinas, where gale force
winds are also occurring.

To the east, a cold front passes through 32N33W to 27N42W, then 
transitions to a stationary front at that point to 25N58W, then
transitions to a warm front from that point to 28N71W. Isolated 
showers are seen along the cold front and stationary front. A 1026
mb high is near 29N27W.

Strong to near gale force southeast to south return flow will 
continue across much of the waters outside of the Bahamas ahead of
a cold front that will reach from 31N77W to the Bahama Channel 
this evening, then from 31N72W to central Cuba on Sun, and from 
Bermuda to east Cuba on Mon. The front will stall across the 
tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles by the middle of 
next week, with the remnants lifting back north late next week.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen