Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico as of 23/2100 UTC and it is expected to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun morning. NW to N gale force winds are expected across the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 12 feet from Sun evening through Sun night. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda high centered near 28N67W and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale- force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will continue through mid-week. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic waters near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 400 nm north and south of the ITCZ between 21W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters as of 23/2100 UTC extending from 30N93W to 26N97W. Scatterometer data indicates southeasterly gentle to moderate across the basin with locally fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Central Gulf of Mexico. Latest observations continue to report fog lingering along the coast of Texas and Louisiana, as well as its adjacent waters within 90 nm of the coast. The front is expected to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico by Sun morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon. The front will weaken on Tue, as it moves northward as a warm front. Gale force winds are expected west of the front in the far SW Gulf from early Sun evening through Sun night. Refer to the section above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1026 mb high and the Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the basin at this time. Refer to the Special Features section above for details about the Gale Warning in effect. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Long period north to northeast swell will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages east of 65W through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N67W. To the east, a cold front extends from a deep 956 mb low north of our area at 47N32W west-southwestward to 32N30W to 25N49W to 31N69W. Scattered showers are present within 90 nm south of the front between 30W-35W. A weakening stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N22W to a 1015 mb low near 20N42W. A surface trough extends from to the low to 16N46W. Over the W Atlantic, the surface high will shift slowly southeastward through Sun night ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Sun. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon, before stalling and weakening along roughly 26N through Tue night. High pressure north of the area will shift eastward Tue through Wed night as a trough approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected over much of the waters Tue through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
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