The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy. - Martin Luther King
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected off the
N coast of Colombia late Sat night into Sun morning, with seas of
8-10 ft expected. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 
02N25W to 02N40W to the coast of northern Brazil near 00N50W. 
Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-14N between the west 
coast of Africa and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
03S-02N between 27W-33W. Scattered showers are seen elsewhere near
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An east-west oriented stationary front is draped across the N Gulf
coast from Tallahassee Florida to Lake Charles Louisiana. Low
stratus clouds and dense fog are observed near the front, 
especially over the waters just offshore of Louisiana. The dense 
fog is likely to persist through early Sat morning, possibly 
spreading to portions of the Texas coast. A surface trough 
extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana to 
Tampico Mexico. The SE Gulf is under the influence of a receding 
ridge of high pressure that extends E to the western Atlantic. 
Gentle wind speeds and seas of 3 ft or less currently prevail over
the entire Gulf of Mexico.

The stationary front along N Gulf Coast will move S over the N
Gulf as a cold front tonight, become stationary again by Sat 
afternoon, and then retreat northward back over the SE United 
States as a warm front on Sun. High pressure building north of the
front over the SE United States will support a gradual increase 
of SE winds and building seas across the W Gulf Sat into Sun, 
with strong SE to S winds possible in the NW Gulf by Sun night. 
Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Mon as the high 
shifts farther east with a weak cold front moving over the NW 
Gulf Mon afternoon. The front should stall over the NW and W Gulf
on Tue, with some reinforcing cool air behind the front arriving 
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades are noted across the central Caribbean 
Sea. Near gale force winds are expected tonight in the south-
central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with gales expected
late Saturday night. For more information about the Gale Warning,
see the Special Features section above. Fresh trades prevail in 
the E Caribbean, with mainly gentle to moderate winds in the NW 
Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin outside of the 
stronger winds near the coast of Colombia, where seas are up to 8
ft. Mainly fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery with 
isolated trade wind showers possible.

Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia during 
the overnight and early morning hours Sat night through the middle
of next week. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras on
Monday through Wednesday. N swell will propagate near the NE 
Caribbean Passages Monday night through at least Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W, a cold front extends from 32N64W to 30N73W to St. 
Augustine Florida. Fresh SW to W winds are within 120 nm south of 
the front, mainly east of 77W. Strong SW to W winds are north of
29N between 57W-65W. Overcast clouds along with isolated to 
scattered showers extend from 60 nm S of the front to a few 
hundred nm N of the front. A 1018 mb high pressure near 24N65W
extends a ridge W to the Florida Keys. NW swell of 7-11 ft 
prevails north of 20N and east of 67W, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere
outside of the Bahamas. Seas are 2-4 ft west of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front should reach along 
28N by Sat afternoon, then merge with a reinforcing front along 
25N east of the Bahamas by Sun afternoon, stall along 20N off the 
coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon, and then 
dissipate on Tue. A strong Bermuda High will build over the area 
in the wake of this front. A new cold front may emerge off of the 
SE United States coast on Tue before weakening on Wed. 

East of 60W, a cold front extends from 32N44W to 28N50W, where the
front becomes stationary to 26N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted north of 25N between 41W-47W. Over the
eastern Atlantic, 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 33N22W. 
Moderate to fresh NE flow was observed by scatterometer over most 
of the eastern tropical Atlantic. NW swell of 8-13 ft covers the 
majority of the area north of 22N between 37W-60W. Seas of 7-9 ft
are over the E Atlantic from 14N-27N between 19W-37W. Scattered 
moderate convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough, is 
observed from the monsoon trough north to 28N between 15W-30W.

$$
Hagen

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