NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A deepening low pressure system of 1005 mb is analyzed off the coast of Georgia, with a cold front extending southwestward across north-central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico near Marco Island, Florida. Satellite-derived winds data indicated gale-force winds occurring N of 29N ahead of the cold front. Gale conditions will persist ahead of the front and mainly N of 29N through Thu. The low pressure will move NE, dragging the front across the western Atlantic. The front will extend from 31N65W to central Cuba on Thu, and from 31N58W to eastern Cuba on Fri. Seas will peak 14-16 ft ahead of the front, and within the area of gale force winds on Thu. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the west coast of Africa near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border at 09N13W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N35W to near the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-04N between 15W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1800 UTC, a cold front extends from near Marco Island, Florida to southwest Gulf of Mexico near 19N92W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted behind the front, with seas of 3-6 ft, highest in the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are seen on visible satellite imagery behind the front. A narrow band of showers is associated with the front, and is now moving across south Florida and the Florida Keys. The front will move across the SE Gulf, reaching from the Straits of Florida to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula tonight. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean on Thu. High pressure will follow the front, and will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the Gulf region Fri night into Sat. The low pressure will deepen and move rapidly toward the northeast Gulf by late Sat, dragging a cold front across the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected over the western Gulf on Sat between the low pressure and a high pressure center located over NE Texas. Then, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Gulf waters Sun night into Mon supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern half of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally in the 5-8 ft range, with the exception of 8-10 ft near the coast of Colombia. As it is normal for this time of the year, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Ridging north of the area over the western Atlantic is shifting southeastward ahead of a cold front currently moving off the east coast of Florida. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds over the southern Caribbean, but gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through Thu. A cold front that now extends over the SE Gulf of Mexico will move into the northwest Caribbean on Thu, then stall briefly along 20N from eastern Cuba to the near Cozumel, Mexico on Fri and dissipate late Fri into Sat. High pressure building southward across the western Atlantic, Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will bring an increase in winds over the NW Caribbean, in the lee of Cuba Sun night into Mon. Under this patter pattern, expect also increasing winds across the Windward passage and the central Caribbean later on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Attention remains focused on the deepening low pressure located E of NE Florida. See Special Features Section above for details on the ongoing Gale Warning associated with this low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure located 26N37W. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and 60W. Strong mid-upper westerly winds are transporting abundant moisture from NE South America all the way to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect the western Atlantic and the regional waters of E Florida on Sat likely producing gale-force winds. The low is forecast to move rapidly from central Florida toward Bermuda Sat night into Sun, dragging another cold front across the SW N Atlantic through Sun night and Mon, when the front is forecast to reach the SE waters and Hispaniola. High pressure building in the wake of the front will produce a large area of fresh to strong N-NE winds across the waters S of 27N W of 60W by Mon. $$ GR
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