Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale off the coast of Morocco... A 14/2216 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off the coast of Morocco north of 30N and east of 12W in the region called AGADIR. According to the latest forecast from Meteo France, winds to gale force will continue to be possible off the coast of Morocco in Agadir through the early morning hours, subsiding below gale force by late morning today. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast that is listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the west coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N24W. A surface trough is along 25W from 01N-09N. The ITCZ continues west of the surface trough from 04N26W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270 nm of the ITCZ between the W coast of Africa and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ from 26W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A large, deep-layered low pressure system is centered over eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from a surface low near the Alabama/Georgia border to the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W, then continues through Belize to central Guatemala. A squall line is analyzed at 0300 UTC from west-central Florida near 27N82W to 25N83W. Radar shows that a line of strong thunderstorms at 0500 UTC extends from approximately Daytona Beach to Orlando to Ft. Myers Florida to 26N83W, then continues SSW as a line of weaker showers and thunderstorms from 26N83W to 24N84W. To the west of this line, more moderate stratiform precipitation is noted over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 87W. A surface trough is located from 30N87W to 22N91W. In between the cold front and surface trough, overcast skies with scattered showers are noted. West of the surface trough, no precipitation is noted as water vapor imagery shows a large dry slot extending over the western Gulf associated with the low over the SE United States. Although gale force winds have already ended in the Gulf of Mexico, seas will remain elevated through early this morning before gradually subsiding. The front will reach from the Port of Tampa to the Yucatan Channel early today, and continue east passing through the Bahama Channel tonight. Strong to near gale force southerly flow and scattered thunderstorms will continue to precede the front across the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Strong to near gale force northwesterly flow will continue west of the front through sunrise this morning. Moderate west flow is expected this evening as the seas will subside. Moderate return flow will set up across the northwest waters on Tue with broad low pressure developing over the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W through central Belize and ending in central Guatemala near 15N90W. Isolated showers are noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and the Isle of Youth. Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air in the eastern and central Caribbean. A scatterometer pass from 15/0126Z shows fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, strongest off the coast of Colombia, where localized near-gales are likely occurring. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean east of 80W through early Sun, with nocturnal pulses to near gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. The cold front that is currently over the Yucatan Channel will stall and then gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean tonight through Mon. Strong north winds are forecast west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras early this morning through late Sun. Large north swell will reach the Leewards later today, and spread south through the Atlantic passages of the northeast Caribbean during the remainder of the weekend, then will subside from the north early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection continues over the west Atlantic, mostly west and north of a line from Cape Canaveral Florida to 30N80W to 32N77W. This activity is from the same weather system that is producing scattered thunderstorms from central Florida through the Carolinas. More convection is occurring just north of the forecast area between 70W and the Carolinas, where gale force winds are also occurring. To the east, a cold front passes through 32N33W to 27N42W, then transitions to a stationary front at that point to 25N58W, then transitions to a warm front from that point to 28N71W. Isolated showers are seen along the cold front and stationary front. A 1026 mb high is near 29N27W. Strong to near gale force southeast to south return flow will continue across much of the waters outside of the Bahamas ahead of a cold front that will reach from 31N77W to the Bahama Channel this evening, then from 31N72W to central Cuba on Sun, and from Bermuda to east Cuba on Mon. The front will stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles by the middle of next week, with the remnants lifting back north late next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen
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