Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 520 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 06N10W then continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are along the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 09W-23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection fired during the overnight hours from 00N-02N between 30W-41W. Additional moderate to strong convection is present from 02N southward near the coast of Brazil between 44W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 28N89W with a trailing cold front extending SW to 21N97W just N of Tampico, Mexico and a warm front extends to the east of the low to 27N85W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are east of the front from 22N north to the northeast Gulf coast in north central FL. Abundance cloud layer is spread across the FL Peninsula associated to the front. To the south, a surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche near 19N90W to 22N89W with a few showers near the trough and the coast of Mexico. In the eastern Gulf coast, a 1018 mb high pressure is located near 29N81W and will gradually moves east today. ASCAT data indicates moderate westerly winds in the NW Gulf near the low pressure. Light and gentle winds prevail in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. Low pressure over the NW Gulf will track eastward across the remainder of the north-central Gulf through the morning hours, reaching S Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night ahead of a third front, which may impact the basin by the end of the week. It is expected to be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Light to moderate winds dominate the Caribbean basin, except near the coast of Colombia where fresh northeasterly winds are occurring. A surface trough extends from 11N69W to 18N66W and is supporting scattered showers along and within 180 nm east of the trough axis. Scattered showers are seen over the Greater Antilles and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Upper-level ridging dominates across the basin with abundant drier air limiting convection west of 69W. Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Thu night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is seen near the Florida coast extending from the 27N79W to 24N80W in the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A cold front enters the forecast area from 31N64W south to 24N74W in the central Bahamas, then a surface trough extends across the Bahamas to 23N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A stationary front is present over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 18N57W with scattered showers and tstorms in the vicinity. Scattered showers are mostly north of 19N between 40W-45W. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the region as a 1028 mb high remains in control. The weak cold front will slowly move east today while dissipating. Another cold front will move into the northern portion by Mon night, eventually stalling along 26N by mid-week and then lifting northward, with a reinforcing front dropping south Thu night and Fri. $$ Torres
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