Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 10N14W extends southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N20W to 01N40W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-02N between 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W to NE Mexico near 24N98W. The front is void of precipitation. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 18N94W. This trough is also void of precipitation. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and SE Mexico, however. Expect the front to become stationary from south Forida to NE Mexico Friday morning. Visibility will remain unrestricted across the Gulf, and no showers or thunderstorms are expected into Friday morning. The front will drift north over the western Gulf as a warm front by Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected over the northeastern Gulf into Sat as high pressure builds north of the area behind the front. The front will weaken across Florida and the eastern Gulf on Sat, possibly returning northward as a warm front on Sunday, ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast late Sat night/early Sun morning. This second weak front will extend from the mouth of the Mississippi River southwestward to near Veracruz Mexico by late Sun, and from the Florida Panhandle to the northeastern Yucatan peninsula by late Monday, followed by moderate northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough over the Caribbean is aiding the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across E Cuba and Hispaniola. Similar showers and thunderstorms ar over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E surface winds persist off the coasts of NW Venezuela and N Colombia with 8 to 10 ft seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas, accompanied by dry conditions persist across the basin. For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to locally strong tradewind flow along the north coast of South America tonight. These winds will expand northward over the south central Caribbean into the southwest Caribbean through Fri, then diminish somewhat late this weekend into early next week. Northeasterly swell will increase east of the Leewards tonight and Friday, then decay from west to east through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front will move off the northeastern Florida coast tonight and reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, then stall from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun ahead of another cold front that will move eastward across the southeastern United States and enter the northwest waters by late Tue. Farther east, a large 1035 mb high over the central Atlantic near 35N37W is producing moderate to fresh trade winds over the deep tropics. Large long period northerly swell persists, with 12 to 14 ft seas covering the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to 12 ft seas present north of 12N and east of 55W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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