NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching into the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and extending to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 04N30W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14W and 23W between 03N to 19N. Another area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 32W to 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered near the central coast of Louisiana. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Gulf from 26N90W to 25N87W. Cloudiness with possible embedded showers is noted between this trough and another surface trough analyzed across the western Gulf near Brownsville, Texas to 19N94W. A recent scatterometer pass observed moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds over the south-central Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail. Seas are 3 to 4 ft near the Yucatan Peninsula, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the N Gulf and dominate the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil conditions for the next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the N Gulf on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the central Caribbean, associated with a surface trough extending near Santa Marta, Colombia to 17N75W. Fresh to strong winds are evident on satellite derived winds on either side of the trough between 13N and Hispaniola. Another surface trough is analyzed east of the Yucatan Peninsula and coast of Belize from 22N86W to 17N88W. Near the northern coast of Panama along the east Pacific monsoon trough, trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is evident elsewhere across the basin at this time. High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the remainder of the basin, with the exception of light to gentle E breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas over the far northwest Caribbean west of 85W. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will maintain only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into early next week, with nighttime fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage Fri night through Sun night. Moderate NE swell over the tropical N Atlantic is expected for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms along a surface trough analyzed near the northern Bahamas from 30N78W to 26N77W. A scatterometer pass indicated fresh to locally strong winds are within 80 nm east of the surface trough north of 28N. To the east, a weakening stationary front reaches from 30N56W to 28N59W. High pressure is building behind the front, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE flow west of 55W, with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. Farther east between 35W and 55W, strong 1037 mb Azores high pressure is maintaining a broad area of fresh to strong trade winds south of 27N with 7 to 11 ft seas, and moderate E to SE winds north of 27N with 6 to 9 ft seas in E swell. Fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail across the open waters east of 35W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure will build south and east into the area through early next week, supporting tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several days. Moderate E swell over the Atlantic from 19N-22N between 55W- 65W is expected for the next several days. $$ Nepaul
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