NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2300 UTC Tue May 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 58W south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture east of the wave, and scattered showers are noted S of 10N within 300 nm east of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is noted over Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the monsoon trough from 05N to 08N between 17W and 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed over the NW Gulf from south-central Louisiana to just south of the Texas/Mexico border. GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data show a line of strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, moving across the central Gulf approaching 90W. These storms are likely producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. An elongated surface trough extends over the NE Gulf and across central Florida, supported by an upper- level trough over the eastern Gulf. Another line of thunderstorms is noted roughly from 26N83W to 23N86W. Outside of convection, winds are generally light to moderate based on earlier scatterometer data. A 1730 UTC altimeter pass over the eastern Gulf shows 2-4 ft seas, which is consistent with nearby buoy observations. Weak low pressure over the Florida Peninsula, with an associated trough extending into the northeast Gulf, will lift north and move inland Wed. A cold front offshore the Texas coast will weaken into a trough, then stall over the NW Gulf into Thu. Smoke and haze from fires over southern Mexico will reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will prevail for the end of the week into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the central Caribbean per earlier scatterometer data. ELsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted over the rest of the basin. Isolated convection is noted over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico, but no significant convection is occurring over the offshore waters this evening. Seas remain 4-7 ft, with the highest wave heights associated with the fresh trades in the south-central waters. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, then remain fresh into the weekend. Fresh winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. During periods of lesser winds, smoke from fires in Central America may restrict visibility in the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave along 84W will move into Central America tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large area of fresh to locally strong winds N of 26N W of 77W is associated with low pressure near the east-central coast of Florida, and its associated trough that extends eastward to 29N77W. Scattered moderate to strong convection continues along the trough, and from South Florida eastward to the NW Bahamas. Some tropical development of this system is possible through early Wed if it remains offshore while moving slowly northward near the NE Florida and Georgia coasts. There is a low chance of formation through 48 hours associated with this system. Elsewhere, another western Atlantic trough extends from 27N63W to 20N70W, with isolated moderate convection occurring east of the trough axis. In the central Atlantic, fresh winds are noted in earlier scatterometer data north of a trough extending from 29N39W to 24N51W. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central Atlantic south of 15N. Yet another trough lingers off the coast of Africa from 31N25W to 22N17W, but no significant convection is associated with it. A 1010 mb low pressure inland of Daytona Beach, Florida will move north and northeast tonight into Wednesday along the the coast of Florida and Georgia, before moving north of the area. Atlantic waters to the north and east of this low will have winds of 20 to 30 kt along with numerous showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface trough along 68W will dissipate Wed. $$ B Reinhart
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