NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through Mon night. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show a large area of strong to gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are expected to peak at 12-14 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm-force extratropical cyclone positioned between Nova Scotia and the Azores will continue to push northeastward over the next few days. Large NW to N swell generated by these winds are going to push south of 31N east of 60W starting Sat morning. This will cause combined seas to build and peak between 14-16 ft north of 28N, and 11-13 ft seas reaching as far south as 20N Sat afternoon through Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 01N30W to 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure system located near Bermuda extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection is affecting the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted offshore NW Yucatan, especially south of 23N and east of 95W, and also in the Straits of Florida. Seas in these waters are of 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure along the U.S. eastern seaboard extends a ridge southwestward to the western Gulf, and producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds over most of the basin, except for locally strong E winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will enter the N Gulf Sat through Sun night, leading to diminishing winds and seas through Sun. Atlantic high pressure will build in again over the area early next week. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. No deep convection is evident across the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, latest scatterometer satellite data depict moderate to fresh easterly winds in the north-central and eastern Caribbean waters. Seas are 6-9 ft in the areas described. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are also found in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered just west of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong across the Windward Passage through Sat evening and to strong in the Gulf of Honduras every night through the forecast period. Seas will build to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell this weekend across the Tropical North Atlantic, then slowly subside through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about Significant Swell at the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 23N55W to 22N70W. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong NE-E winds north of the front, mainly south of 27N and between 50W and 70W. Farther west, tightening pressure gradient between the 1031 mb high pressure near Bermuda and strong low pressure system in the central United States support fresh to strong southerly winds off NE Florida. Seas behind the cold front to the the coast of Florida are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N55W. Fresh to strong easterly breezes are also affecting the waters south of 22N and west of 60W, with the strongest winds at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in the waters described are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found south of 22N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. The wave heights in these waters are 6-8 ft. Fresh to near-gale force NE-W winds are present north of 17N and east of 20W in the easternmost Atlantic. The strongest winds are noted off Morocco. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 23N55W to 22N69W will weaken and dissipate Sat. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front is producing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds north of the front and east of the central and southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong southeast winds have developed over the waters offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Sat night. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop ahead of the front and will shift eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of the 31N Sun night. $$ DELGADO
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